Research Article

Seasonal Forcing Drives Spatio-Temporal Pattern Formation in Rabies Epidemics

N. V. Festenberg^a1, T. Gross^a2 and B. Blasius^a3

^a1 Lehrstuhl Computergraphik und Visualisierung, Technische Universität Dresden Dresden, Germany

^a2 Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University Princeton, USA

^a3 Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres, Universität Oldenburg Oldenburg, Germany

Abstract

Seasonal forcing is identified as a key pattern generating mechanism in an epidemic model of rabies dispersal. We reduce an established individual-based high-detail model down to a deterministic conceptual model. The characteristic wave pattern characterized by high densities of infected individuals is maintained throughout the reduction process. In our model it is evident that seasonal forcing is the dominant factor that drives pattern formation. In particular we show that seasonal forcing can cause splitting of epidemic wave fronts.

(Online publication June 15 2008)

Key Words:

• pattern formation;
• epidemics;
• rabies;
• seasonal forcing

Mathematics Subject Classification:

• 65P40;
• 65C99;
• 92P99

Correspondence:

^c1 nf6@inf.tu-dresden.de