Seasonal Forcing Drives Spatio-Temporal Pattern Formation in Rabies Epidemics

Free access article

Issue		Math. Model. Nat. Phenom. Volume 2, Number 4, 2007 Patterns and waves in ecology and evolution


Page(s)		63 - 73
DOI		10.1051/mmnp:2008026

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom. Vol. 2, No. 4, 2007, pp. 63-73
DOI: 10.1051/mmnp:2008026

Seasonal Forcing Drives Spatio-Temporal Pattern Formation in Rabies Epidemics

N. V. Festenberg¹, T. Gross² and B. Blasius³

¹ Lehrstuhl Computergraphik und Visualisierung, Technische Universität Dresden Dresden, Germany
² Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University Princeton, USA
³ Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres, Universität Oldenburg Oldenburg, Germany

nf6@inf.tu-dresden.de

Abstract
Seasonal forcing is identified as a key pattern generating mechanism in an epidemic model of rabies dispersal. We reduce an established individual-based high-detail model down to a deterministic conceptual model. The characteristic wave pattern characterized by high densities of infected individuals is maintained throughout the reduction process. In our model it is evident that seasonal forcing is the dominant factor that drives pattern formation. In particular we show that seasonal forcing can cause splitting of epidemic wave fronts.

Mathematics Subject Classification. 65P40, 65C99, 92P99

Key words: pattern formation -- epidemics -- rabies -- seasonal forcing

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