| Issue |
Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 5, Number 6, 2010
Ecology (Part 2)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Page(s) | 243 - 258 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/mmnp/20105611 | |
| Published online | 07 January 2011 | |
Mathematical Modeling and Quantitative Analysis of the Demographic and Ecological Aspects of Russian Supermortality
1
V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS,
Irkutsk,
Russia
2
Angarsk Branch of the East-Siberian Center for Human Ecology SB
RAMS Research Institute of Labor Medicine and Human Ecology,
Angarsk,
Russia
* Corresponding author. E-mail: cherk@mail.icc.ru
We have carried out a polysystem analysis of the population dynamics by using a variety of hypotheses and their respective models based on different system interpretations of the phenomenon under investigation. Each of the models supplements standard dynamic equations for explaining the effects observed. A qualitative model-based analysis is made of the age-specific male mortality for a Siberian industrial city. The study revealed the tendencies for background mortality to increase with age and over time, which characterizes in an integral manner the influence of socio-ecological factors on the decline in population viability. It is shown that these tendencies are similar for different years and for different population age groups.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 91D20
Key words: demographic crisis / mortality / socio-ecological factors / mathematical modeling / data analysis
© EDP Sciences, 2011
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