Modeling the dynamics of Wolbachia-infected and uninfected Aedes aegypti populations by delay differential equations

¹ Inria, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, 69200 Villeurbanne, France
² São Paulo State University (UNESP), Institute of Biosciences, 18618-689 Botucatu, SP, Brazil

^* Corresponding author: mostafa.adimy@inria.fr

Received: 15 January 2020
Accepted: 29 September 2020

Abstract

Starting from an age structured partial differential model, constructed taking into account the mosquito life cycle and the main features of the Wolbachia-infection, we derived a delay differential model using the method of characteristics, to study the colonization and persistence of the Wolbachia-transinfected Aedes aegypti mosquito in an environment where the uninfected wild mosquito population is already established. Under some conditions, the model can be reduced to a Nicholson-type delay differential system; here, the delay represents the duration of mosquito immature phase that comprises egg, larva and pupa. In addition to mortality and oviposition rates characteristic of the life cycle of the mosquito, other biological features such as cytoplasmic incompatibility, bacterial inheritance, and deviation on sex ratio are considered in the model. The model presents three equilibriums: the extinction of both populations, the extinction of Wolbachia-infected population and persistence of uninfected one, and the coexistence. The conditions of existence for each equilibrium are obtained analytically and have been interpreted biologically. It is shown that the increase of the delay can promote, through Hopf bifurcation, stability switch towards instability for the nonzero equilibriums. Overall, when the delay increases and crosses predetermined thresholds, the populations go to extinction.