Figure 1


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Scheme of the model with notation guide and default parameter values. The model is fully characterized by parameters β, γ, and τ. The latent period, assumed to be substitutable with the incubation period, results from the inclusion of k = 5 intermediate exposed states and follows the Erlang distribution with average τ = 5 days. The serial interval follows the hypoexponential distribution with rates Λ = {kτ, kτ, kτ, kτ, kτ, γ}.

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