Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 15, 2020
Coronavirus: Scientific insights and societal aspects
|Number of page(s)||12|
|Published online||21 April 2020|
Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates
Department of Biosystems and Soft Matter, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Polish Academy of Sciences,
2 Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw, 02-097 Warsaw, Poland.
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 5 April 2020
We constructed a simple Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Removed model of the spread of COVID-19. The model is parametrised only by the average incubation period, τ, and two rate parameters: contact rate, β, and exclusion rate, γ. The rates depend on nontherapeutic interventions and determine the basic reproduction number, R0 = β∕γ, and, together with τ, the daily multiplication coefficient in the early exponential phase, θ. Initial R0 determines the reduction of β required to contain the spread of the epidemic. We demonstrate that introduction of a cascade of multiple exposed states enables the model to reproduce the distributions of the incubation period and the serial interval reported by epidemiologists. Using the model, we consider a hypothetical scenario in which β is modulated solely by anticipated changes of social behaviours: first, β decreases in response to a surge of daily new cases, pressuring people to self-isolate, and then, over longer time scale, β increases as people gradually accept the risk. In this scenario, initial abrupt epidemic spread is followed by a plateau and slow regression, which, although economically and socially devastating, grants time to develop and deploy vaccine or at least limit daily cases to a manageable number.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30
Key words: basic reproduction number / novel coronavirus
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.