Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 5, Number 3, 2010Mathematical modeling in the medical sciences
|Page(s)||191 - 205|
|Published online||28 April 2010|
Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University,
Nashville, Tennessee, 37240
2 Department of Public Health and Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
3 Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Centre for Disease Modeling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada M3J 1P3
4 Department of Medicine and Department of Microbiology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016, USA
* Corresponding author. E-mail
Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92B05 / 62P10 / 37N25
Key words: influenza / symptoms surveillance / pre-symptomatic / age of infection model / school closing policy
© EDP Sciences, 2010
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