Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 15, 2020
Coronavirus: Scientific insights and societal aspects
|Number of page(s)||13|
|Published online||17 July 2020|
Prediction of confinement effects on the number of Covid-19 outbreak in Algeria
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Tlemcen, Algeria.
2 UMMISCO, Centre IRD d’Ile de France, Bondy, France.
3 Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France.
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 29 June 2020
The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria was reported on 25 February 2020. Since then, it has progressed rapidly and the number of cases grow exponentially each day. In this article, we utilize SEIR modelling to forecast COVID-19 outbreak in Algeria under two scenarios by using the real-time data from March 01 to April 10, 2020. In the first scenario: no control measures are put into place, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Algeria is 2.1, the number of new cases in Algeria will peak from around late May to early June and up to 82% of the Algerian population will likely contract the coronavirus. In the second scenario, at a certain date T, drastic control measures are taken, people are being advised to self-isolate or to quarantine and will be able to leave their homes only if necessary. We use SEIR model with fast change between fully protected and risky states. We prove that the final size of the epidemic depends strongly on the cumulative number of cases at the date when we implement intervention and on the fraction of the population in confinement. Our analysis shows that the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be and this very quickly produces.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92B05 / 92C60
Key words: COVID-19 / SEIR compartmental model / basic reproduction number / time scales / aggregation of variables
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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