Impact of temperature change on the population dynamics of the maize pest Busseola fusca

¹ Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Burundi, PO Box 2700 Bujumbura, Burundi
² Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Maroua, PO Box 814, Maroua, Cameroon
³ Laboratory of Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Faculty of Science, University of Douala, PO Box 24157 Douala, Cameroon
⁴ IRD, Sorbonne University, UMMISCO, 93143 Bondy France
⁵ Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A 31, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
⁶ Department of Physics, Humboldt Universitat zu Berlin, 12489 Berlin, Germany

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Received: 21 August 2022
Accepted: 9 January 2025

Abstract

We provided in this work a theoretical framework to study and to simulate the population dynamics of Busseola fusca (B. fusca): maize pest. The aim is to simulate and predict the presence levels of Busseola fusca under the influence of temperature variations and control actions. Based on the life cycle of B. fusca), we first propose a mathematical model to study the population dynamics of this maize pest. Some parameters are taken to be temperature-dependent. This led to a system of non-autonomous differential equations. Also, the classical control strategies are incorporated in the model. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. For the model with constant parameters, we compute the basic offspring number 𝒩₀ that determines the evolution of the population of this insect and establish that the trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable whenever 𝒩₀ < 1, while if 𝒩₀ > 1, the non trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. For the model with temperature variations, we find two explicit thresholds parameters 𝒩_max and 𝒩_min that bound the basic offspring number 𝒩₀ (such that 𝒩_max ≤ 𝒩₀ ≤ 𝒩_min), and use them to prove the extinction and the persistence of the pest within a maize field. We prove analytically and by numerical simulations that B. fusca) persists uniformly within a maize field when 𝒩_min > 1 and tends to disappears within a maize field when 𝒩_max < 1. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulations. They suggest further that spraying insecticides to kill larvae and destroying residues after harvest significantly reduce the population Busseola fusca more than other control actions.