Adaptation in shifting and size-changing environments under selection

Univ. Rouen Normandie, CNRS, LMRS UMR 6085 F-76000 Rouen, France

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Received: 7 October 2025
Accepted: 15 February 2026

Abstract

We propose a model to characterize how a diffusing population adapts under a time periodic selection, while its environment undergoes shifts and size changes, leading to significant differences with classical results on fixed domains. After studying the underlying periodic parabolic principal eigenelements, we address the extinction vs. persistence issue, taking into account the interplay between the moving habitat and periodic selection. Subsequently, we employ a space-time finite element approach, establish the well-posedness of the approximation scheme, and conduct numerical simulations to explore these dynamics.