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Serial interval and daily Rt estimates. (A) Simulated serial intervals based on the mean = 3.96 days and SD = 4.75 days estimated by Du et al. . For the simulations, used to assess uncertainties in the estimates, we assumed a minimum mean = 3.53 and a maximum mean = 4.39 days, and a minimum SD = 4.46 and maximum SD = 5.07 days, which were based on the 95% credible intervals of the distribution estimated by Du et al. . Each color line indicates a realization. For the simulations in the panel, we assumed a SD of 0.2 for the mean and variance, and we observed no major difference when increasing the SD to 1. (B) Daily Rt intervals, the horizontal dashed black line is the threshold when Rt = 1, whilevertical lines indicate the start of the COVID-19 suppression phases I and II described in Table 1.
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