Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 15, 2020
Coronavirus: Scientific insights and societal aspects
|Number of page(s)||11|
|Published online||19 June 2020|
Accounting for symptomatic and asymptomatic in a SEIR-type model of COVID-19
Department of Mathematics, Caraga State University,
Butuan City, Philippines.
2 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, MSU-Iligan Institute of Technology, Iligan City, Philippines.
3 Laboratoire Amiénois de Mathématique Fondamentale et Appliquée, CNRS UMR 7352, Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80069 Amiens, France.
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 1 June 2020
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from several countries like France, Philippines, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, China, and the USA. First, we derived the basic reproduction number, R0, and estimated the effective reproduction Reff for each country. Second, we were interested in the merits of interventions, either by distancing or by treatment. Results revealed that total and partial containment is effective in reducing the transmission. However, its duration may be long to eradicate the disease (104 days for France). By setting the end of containment as the day when hospital capacity is reached, numerical simulations showed that the duration can be reduced (up to only 39 days for France if the capacity is 1000 patients). Further, results pointed out that the effective reproduction number remains large after containment. Therefore, testing and isolation are necessary to stop the disease.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30 / 37N25 / 34D20
Key words: COVID-19 / SEIsIaUR Model / reproduction number / interventions
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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