Mathematical modelling for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in predicting future behaviours and sensitivity analysis

¹ Departemnt of Mathematics, College of Basic Education, University of Raparin, Ranya, Kurdistant Region of Iraq.
² Department of Computer Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.

^* Corresponding author: sarbaz.hamza@raparinuni.org

Received: 30 March 2020
Accepted: 12 May 2020

Abstract

Nowadays, there are a variety of descriptive studies of available clinical data for coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Mathematical modelling and computational simulations are effective tools that help global efforts to estimate key transmission parameters. The model equations often require computational tools and dynamical analysis that play an important role in controlling the disease. This work reviews some models for coronavirus first, that can address important questions about the global health care and suggest important notes. Then, we model the disease as a system of differential equations. We develop previous models for the coronavirus, some key computational simulations and sensitivity analysis are added. Accordingly, the local sensitivities for each model state with respect to the model parameters are computed using three different techniques: non-normalizations, half normalizations and full normalizations. Results based on sensitivity analysis show that almost all model parameters may have role on spreading this virus among susceptible, exposed and quarantined susceptible people. More specifically, communicate rate person–to–person, quarantined exposed rate and transition rate of exposed individuals have an effective role in spreading this disease. One possible solution suggests that healthcare programs should pay more attention to intervention strategies, and people need to self-quarantine that can effectively reduce the disease.