Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 15, 2020
Coronavirus: Scientific insights and societal aspects
|Number of page(s)||21|
|Published online||14 October 2020|
Optimal control techniques based on infection age for the study of the COVID-19 epidemic*
INRIA-Saclay and Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées, Ecole Polytechnique,
2 CIFASIS-CONICET-UNR, Ocampo y Esmeralda, S2000EZP, Rosario, Argentina.
Accepted: 3 September 2020
We propose a model for the COVID-19 epidemic where the population is partitioned into classes corresponding to ages (that remain constant during the epidemic). The main feature is to take into account the infection age of the infected population. This allows to better simulate the infection propagation that crucially depend on the infection age. We discuss how to estimate the coefficients from data available in the future, and introduce a confinement variable as control. The cost function is a compromise between a confinement term, the hospitalization peak and the death toll. Our numerical experiments allow to evaluate the interest of confinement varying with age classes.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 49M25 / 92D25 / 92D30 / 35Q93
Key words: COVID-19 / epidemic modeling / confinement / age-structured systems / optimal control
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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