| Issue |
Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.
Volume 17, 2022
Coronavirus: Scientific insights and societal aspects
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 9 | |
| Number of page(s) | 20 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/mmnp/2022017 | |
| Published online | 20 May 2022 | |
Immuno-Epidemiological Model-Based Prediction of Further Covid-19 Epidemic Outbreaks Due to Immunity Waning
1 Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India
2 Institut Camille Jordan, UMR 5208 CNRS, University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France
3 Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow 117198, Russian Federation
* Corresponding author: malayb@iitk.ac.in
Received:
30
March
2022
Accepted:
4
April
2022
We develop a new data-driven immuno-epidemiological model with distributed infectivity, recovery and death rates determined from the epidemiological, clinical and experimental data. Immunity in the population is taken into account through the time-dependent number of vaccinated people with different numbers of doses and through the acquired immunity for recovered individuals. The model is validated with the available data. We show that for the first time from the beginning of pandemic COVID-19 some countries reached collective immunity. However, the epidemic continues because of the emergence of new variant BA.2 with a larger immunity escape or disease transmission rate than the previous BA.l variant. Large epidemic outbreaks can be expected several months later due to immunity waning. These outbreaks can be restrained by an intensive booster vaccination.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30
Key words: Epidemic model / variable recovery rate / effective infection rate / vaccination / waning immunity
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, 2022
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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